Brazil has helped pad supplies in No. 1 buyer, China, ever since the East Asian country became locked in a trade dispute with the United States, causing Beijing to tariff the US product. Abundant Brazilian supply has allowed China to hold off longer on buying US beans, and with Brazil's harvest in the early stages, China's wait should soon be over.
However, this year's harvest may not be going as swimmingly as once thought. Precipitation deficits have crept into top-producing states, and some traders have cut back on their harvest estimates.
In a Reuters poll conducted between Jan. 3 and Jan. 7, industry analysts on average pegged Brazil's 2018-19 soyabean harvest at about 120 million tonnes.
Last month, the US Department of Agriculture raised the crop to a record 122 million tonnes while official Brazilian statistics body Conab penciled in 120.1 million.
Some market estimates are lower now. Last week, consultancy INTL FCStone reduced its target by about 4 million tonnes to 116.24 million and grain growers' group Aprosoja pegged the soya crop between 110 million and 115 million.
It is worth pointing out that one year ago, estimates for Brazil's soya harvest were much lower than the final tally of around 120 million. Both USDA and Conab were at 110 million tonnes, though some groups were as high as 114 million.
Despite the markets' recent tendency to lowball Brazilian soyabean production, there are some very good reasons to question whether the 2019 harvest can break last year's record, even though it seemed like a sure thing just a month ago.
Soybeans in No. 2 soyabean- and corn-producing state Paraná in Brazil's south have recently taken a notable turn for the worse.
As of Monday, some 58 percent of the crop was in good condition compared with 80 percent on Dec. 17. During the current week in the past three years, at least 87 percent of the state's soyabeans were rated in good condition.
This includes the 2016 harvest, when Paraná's soyabean yields fell 8 percent below trend due to persistent dryness. Yields reached 10 percent above the long-term trend in 2017 and 3 percent above last year.
Rainfall has been too scarce in recent weeks. Accumulated precipitation over the past two months stands at just two-thirds of normal levels. The state's soyabean planting wrapped in late November.
One partial explanation for the decline in conditions is that 17 percent of the crop had reached maturity by Monday compared with 3 percent three weeks earlier, and mature soyabeans may not appear to be in "good" condition.
But the 22-point drop in the "good" category over the last three weeks more than accounts for this factor. Additionally, some 12 percent of the crop is now in bad shape versus just 3 percent on Dec. 17.
Harvest is already off to what is probably a record-fast start. Some 5 percent of soyabeans had been cut in Paraná by Monday, and this mark is usually not reached until about Jan. 23.
Fast is not always best, though. Paraná's soya harvest moved very slowly in the past two years with excellent results. The 2016 harvest got off to a super speedy start but fell off in the second half and had disappointing yields.
Below-normal rainfall has also been prominent recently in top grower Mato Grosso in Brazil's Center-West. The key northern production region of the state has received only 80 percent of normal precipitation over the last 60 days.
But much of that dryness occurred in the last four weeks or so, potentially after the critical pod-filling period. Mato Grosso farmers planted the soyabean crop at a record-fast pace, completing most of it by early November. It is also noteworthy that soil moisture was at a five-year high for the time of year.
It is uncertain to what degree yields have been impacted in Mato Grosso, but since that state is first to be harvested, evidence will arrive sooner rather than later.
State agency IMEA is likely to publish its first soyabean harvest report of the season on Friday. In recent years, the earliest start to harvest was in 2017, when 5.3 percent of the crop was collected by Jan. 13.
Mato Grosso do Sul, south of Mato Grosso and north of Paraná, has observed 69 percent of normal rainfall in the last 60 days, and crop losses are already being considered there. Mato Grosso do Sul produced 8 percent of Brazil's soyabeans last year. The next two weeks are likely to be drier than normal in Brazil's top producing states.
Some analysts already fear that the recent dryness could negatively impact Brazil's second corn crop, which is planted immediately following soyabean harvest and is most heavily exported.
Generally, the second crop, known as safrinha, is at much higher risk weather-wise than soyabeans or full-season corn because an early onset of Brazil's dry season often coincides with grain fill.